How Many Kids Will Die?

Gideon Polya

July 25, 2006

The Israeli bombing and shelling of Gaza and Lebanon has already killed 120 people in Gaza and 380 people in Lebanon as compared to about 40 Israeli deaths (half of them Israeli soldiers). However the vastly greater carnage of non-violent as well as violent "avoidable deaths" is simply NOT reported by lying, racist Mainstream media. This huge, hidden death toll is happening because of destruction of the economy and infrastructure crucial for keeping people alive. Indeed at this time (25 July 2006) 800,000 Lebanese have been made homeless (for key recent reports see: *1, *2, *3).

To assess the ACTUAL human consequences of this war criminal and horrendously deadly and disproportionate Israeli violence one can go to UN demographic data of the UN Population Division *4 and UNICEF *5 to determine how many under-5 year old infants are ALREADY dying in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and how many WILL die as a result of the Israeli bombing.

To enable the reader to check my calculations and assertions I provide the following relevant UN-derived statistics (2003) for Israel’s immediate Arab neighbours on "population" (in millions, m) , "under-5 infant population"/"total population" expressed as a percentage (%) and of "annual under-5 year old infant death rate" expressed as a percentage (%): Egypt (71.3m, 12.2%, 0.75%), Iraq (24.9m, 15.5%, 2.74%), Jordan (5.4m, 13.8%, 0.66%), Lebanon (3.6m, 9.7%. 0.63%), Occupied Palestinian Territory (3.5m, 18.1%, 0.51%), Saudi Arabia (23.9m, 13.7%, 0.62%), and (Syria (17.6 m, 13.6%, 0.54%) - as compared to the data for Israel (6.4m, 10.1%, 0.12%), Kuwait (2.5m. 9.2%, 0.22%) and United Arab Emirates (3.0m, 7.9%, 0.15%).

ACTUAL OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORY & LEBANON INFANT DEATHS

Inspection of this data tells us that a Muslim Arab country, the United Arab Emirates, can achieve an "annual under-5 year old infant death rate" (0.15%) comparable to that of Israel (0.12%). Kuwait (0.22%) has been remote from Israeli violence but has borne a heavy burden of collateral consequences of US-UK-Israeli barbarism in the Middle East (the Gulf War and a huge Palestinian refugee population prior to the Gulf War).

In assessing the ACTUAL "avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon we need to take a "baseline value" e.g. (a) Israel (0.12%) (from a non-racist view, the example of the United Arab Emirates and consideration of the Geneva Convention which demands that the Occupier is obliged to do everything possible to preserve the lives of the Occupied) or (b) Syria (0.54%) (impoverished neighbouring country, similar Muslim and Christian culture, partially occupied and partially ethnically cleansed by Israel, acutely threatened by 3 nuclear powers and with an authoritarian government).

Israel-based estimating (a) yields an ACTUAL "avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon of 0.39% and 0.51%, respectively, this translating to ACTUAL "annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths" totaling 2,471 and 1,781, respectively.

Syria-based estimating (b) yields an ACTUAL "avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon of 0.0% and 0.09%, respectively, this translating to ACTUAL "annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths" totaling 0 and 314, respectively.

EXPECTED OCCUPIED PALESTINIAN TERRITORY & LEBANON INFANT DEATHS

If the continuing war criminal Israeli devastation of the economy and civilian infrastructure crucial for preserving life yields a situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon similar to that in Iraq ("annual under-5 infant death rate" under US-led occupation 2.74%) then the EXPECTED "avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon can be estimated based on the (a) Israeli or (b) Syrian baselines as outlined above.

Israel-based estimating (a) yields an EXPECTED "avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon of 2.62%, this translating to EXPECTED "annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths" totaling 16,598 and 9,149, respectively.

Syria-based estimating (b) yields an EXPECTED "avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon of 2.20%, this translating to EXPECTED "annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths" totaling 13,937 and 7,682, respectively.

M-E & AFGHAN INFANT DEATHS IN A YEAR’S TIME

The above estimates may be under-estimates because there an even worse scenario. Thus the ACTUAL "annual under-5 infant death rate" in Occupied Afghanistan under US-led occupation is a genocidal 5.72%. If the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Lebanon merely get to an Iraq scenario (2.74%) in a year’s time then the EXPECTED "avoidable annual under-5 infant death rate" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq can be estimated based on the (a) Israeli or (b) Syrian baselines as outlined above.

Israel-based estimating (a) yields an EXPECTED "annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Lebanon, Occupied Afghanistan and Occupied Iraq in a year’s time of 16,598, 9,149, 250,841 and 101,119, respectively.

Syria-based estimating (b) yields an EXPECTED "annual avoidable under-5 infant deaths" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Lebanon, Occupied Afghanistan and Occupied Iraq in a year’s time of 13,937, 7,682, 232,028 and 84,909, respectively.

Of course, "avoidable under-5 infant deaths" is merely ONE subset of the "total avoidable mortality" in a society. From detailed analysis of global avoidable mortality *6 it turns out that for Third World countries the "avoidable under-5 infant mortality" is about 0.6 of the "total avoidable mortality". Indeed the "under-5 infant mortality" (information readily accessed via UNICEF *7 ) is about 0.7 of the "total avoidable mortality" (see MWC News: *8). The reader can thus readily make his or her own assessment of Israeli, UK, US, Coalition and NATO war crimes on the basis of this information.

As this is being written the Israeli Zionazis are still bombing and shelling innocent civilians in Gaza and Lebanon – an outrageous war crimes according to the Geneva conventionn *9 . About 50% of these civilians are Children and 75% are Women and Children. In Lebanon there were 25,000 Australians, 25,000 Americans, 40,000 Canadians, 20,000 British and 20,000 French citizens cowering under Zionazi bombs and shells prior to limited evacuations – yet only the FRENCH GOVERNMENT has demanded an immediate end to the violence *10 – the Anglo-Celtic Governments continue to support the continuing bombing and shelling of their OWN citizens.

Lebanese-origin Australian, American, and Canadian citizens are – unequivocally, no ifs or buts - Australian, American, and Canadian citizens who have a right to the fullest protection from their Governments. However these Governments and their supporters clearly apply a racist standard to "Lebanese-origin citizens". Those who support the terrorist bombing and shelling of their own citizens are traitors and terrorist sympathizers.

The horrendous non-violent as well as violent avoidable deaths in Occupied Palestine, partly-occupied Lebanon, Occupied Iraq and Occupied Afghanistan are NOT reported by lying Mainstream media in the Anglo-Celtic countries (Anglo-Celtia). The actual infant deaths and those expected due to continuing devastation represent a moral bottom-line for decent human beings. We can argue over all kinds of philosophical, economic or other issues but the bottom-line common belief is respect for Mother and Child – that killing Children is unthinkable.

Those who ignore, deny, obfuscate, excuse, support, advocate, engage in or are otherwise complicit in gross abuses of Children and Women – or indeed of anyone – have crossed the line separating decent humanity from Nazi-style barbarism.

Notwithstanding US vetoing of peace and justice at the UN, the International Community must make a stand against Israeli Zionazism and Anglo-Celtia "democratic Nazism". Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. Decent people are obliged to (a) inform others about horrendous abuses of humanity and (b) act ethically in all their dealings with those complicit in such abuses. Sanctions and Boycotts – simple exercise of the neo-con sine qua non of "free market choice" – worked against the racist Apartheid régime in South Africa and should be rigorously applied where possible to constrain racist and genocidal Israeli Zionazism and Anglo-Celtian democratic tyranny.

Source and Notes

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Dr Gideon Polya, MWC News Chief political editor, published some 130 works in a 4 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003), and is currently writing a book on global mortality ---