US warns of worsening Iraq crisis

President Bush is sending 21,500 extra US troops to Iraq

2 February 2007

The security situation in Iraq will get worse unless action is taken to reverse increasing communal and insurgent clashes, a US intelligence report says.

The National Intelligence Estimate, produced by 16 US spy agencies, cites sectarian violence as the main threat.

The report uses the controversial term "civil war" to describe key elements of the conflict, but says it does not adequately reflect its complexities.

The report was described as "tough but fair" by a White House spokesman.

"Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq."

National Intelligence Estimate

US national security advisor Steve Hadley said the report, presented to President George W Bush on Thursday, was "a tough look at Iraq".

But he said it was "not at war" with the president's new strategy on Iraq, announced last month, of sending 21,500 additional troops to the region.

'Civil war'

The report said: "The term civil war does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict... Nonetheless the term civil war accurately describes key elements."

The key elements are listed as "the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence and population displacements".

However, as well as sectarian violence, the report points out that there is also conflict within the Shia community and also from elements sympathetic to al-Qaeda.

The National Intelligence Estimate says violence between Sunnis and Shias is being driven by increasing polarisation, compounded by a weak government and security force.

'Ominous consequences'

It warned of ominous consequences if the level of violence went unchecked.

"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate in the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate."

Bombings and mortar attacks are a daily threat to Iraqi civilians

It adds: "Coalition capabilities including force levels, resources and operations remain an essential stabilising element in Iraq."

The BBC's Ian Watson in Washington says the Bush administration is likely to use the report to justify the president's new strategy, as it concludes the Iraqi security forces will be hard-pressed to operate on their own against Shia militias.

The document argued against a quick withdrawal of US troops, saying it would fracture the Iraqi army, strengthen al-Qaeda elements in the country and significantly increase violence.

It also says Iran and to a lesser extent Syria are contributing to a worsening of the situation.

The report is the first intelligence assessment on Iraq in more than two years.

Source