Rice learns global truths the hard way
July 23, 2006
By Diane Carman
Denver Post Staff Columnist
It's mid-July and Arthur Gilbert is wearing shorts and a Tour de France T-shirt. In his 45th summer at the University of Denver's Graduate School of International Studies, he's in his office, as always, reading a book about genocide in Cambodia and talking about the state of the world, which he immodestly suggests has been "screwed up royally" by the Bush administration.
I have come to him in a desperate attempt to understand the madness in Lebanon and what Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - who earned her Ph.D. in the very same DU program - can possibly do to help resolve it.
He doesn't disappoint.
Before my recorder's even warmed up, he's comparing the conflict to Ariel Sharon's catastrophic war in 1982, the influence of Israeli domestic politics then and now, and the shambles that Lebanon has become yet again.
Just as in '82, he said, the Israelis are taking extraordinary action to make the rest of the world aware that something needs to be done.
"Underreaction doesn't put the problem on the table.
"Now, this is a terrible thing I've just said. Look at the horrific loss of life and the casualties. But only when you overreact does the world pay attention."
So with missiles raining on Lebanon, a humanitarian crisis looming and a defiant Hezbollah hanging tough, it falls to world leaders to broker some resolution.
It falls to Rice.
The protégé of renowned Josef Korbel - founder of the DU program, father of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and the guy who hired Gilbert way back when - has few options.
"It's very problematic," Gilbert said.
She can't go to Beirut. "What are they going to do, drop her by helicopter?"
And she shouldn't go to Israel. "The U.S. and Israel are already in the same sleeping bag, so what's the point?"
She might make a "quiet journey" to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, negotiate a "huge financial commitment" from Sunni states to help Lebanon, and then visit Paris to ask the European nations to provide military forces to secure the border between Lebanon and Israel, he said.
"But there's so much mistrust in the Arab world toward the U.S., it will be very difficult."
Much of that mistrust is a product of a foreign affairs debacle that Rice played a key role in: the invasion of Iraq.
"This was the worst foreign policy decision since Vietnam - maybe in our history,"
Gilbert said.
Bush the elder and Bill Clinton understood that "keeping Saddam Hussein in a box" was a useful strategy. "George W. succeeded in giving the Iranians a triumph they had failed to achieve through 10 years of war with Iraq - and they didn't lose a single life in the process."
Now, without the barrier Iraq provided to contain jihadist influence in the region, Iran's star is ascending and it is funneling money to Hezbollah to attack Israel. And while Rice continues to preach the Bush gospel of democracy, the reality is her best hope for negotiating with the democratically elected terrorist regimes fighting Israel lies with unelected kings and dictators.
"History is full of irony," Gilbert said, smiling broadly. "That's why I love it."
He admits he underestimated Rice when she was confirmed as secretary of state. "I think she's doing better," which isn't saying much since he viewed her performance as national security adviser as a "disaster." At that time she endorsed the irrational neo-conservative views that got the country embroiled in the war in Iraq, for which, Gilbert said, "there's no way out."
"Now she's learning."
The fact is, he said, "international politics is a nasty, dirty business. It's a lot like 'The Sopranos.' I gave a paper last year suggesting that Tony would not be a bad secretary of state," he said devilishly. "He knows the game of political realism."
Now that positions have hardened in the Middle East, longstanding conflicts have exploded into bloody open warfare and trust in the U.S. has evaporated, he said, one thing's clear:
Rice knows that game too.
Diane Carman's column appears Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at 303-820-1489 or dcarman@denverpost.com.
Link:
USA allows more time for Israel to "finish the job" in Lebanon
By Diane Carman
Denver Post Staff Columnist
It's mid-July and Arthur Gilbert is wearing shorts and a Tour de France T-shirt. In his 45th summer at the University of Denver's Graduate School of International Studies, he's in his office, as always, reading a book about genocide in Cambodia and talking about the state of the world, which he immodestly suggests has been "screwed up royally" by the Bush administration.
I have come to him in a desperate attempt to understand the madness in Lebanon and what Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - who earned her Ph.D. in the very same DU program - can possibly do to help resolve it.
He doesn't disappoint.
Before my recorder's even warmed up, he's comparing the conflict to Ariel Sharon's catastrophic war in 1982, the influence of Israeli domestic politics then and now, and the shambles that Lebanon has become yet again.
Just as in '82, he said, the Israelis are taking extraordinary action to make the rest of the world aware that something needs to be done.
"Underreaction doesn't put the problem on the table.
"Now, this is a terrible thing I've just said. Look at the horrific loss of life and the casualties. But only when you overreact does the world pay attention."
So with missiles raining on Lebanon, a humanitarian crisis looming and a defiant Hezbollah hanging tough, it falls to world leaders to broker some resolution.
It falls to Rice.
The protégé of renowned Josef Korbel - founder of the DU program, father of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and the guy who hired Gilbert way back when - has few options.
"It's very problematic," Gilbert said.
She can't go to Beirut. "What are they going to do, drop her by helicopter?"
And she shouldn't go to Israel. "The U.S. and Israel are already in the same sleeping bag, so what's the point?"
She might make a "quiet journey" to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, negotiate a "huge financial commitment" from Sunni states to help Lebanon, and then visit Paris to ask the European nations to provide military forces to secure the border between Lebanon and Israel, he said.
"But there's so much mistrust in the Arab world toward the U.S., it will be very difficult."
Much of that mistrust is a product of a foreign affairs debacle that Rice played a key role in: the invasion of Iraq.
"This was the worst foreign policy decision since Vietnam - maybe in our history,"
Gilbert said.
Bush the elder and Bill Clinton understood that "keeping Saddam Hussein in a box" was a useful strategy. "George W. succeeded in giving the Iranians a triumph they had failed to achieve through 10 years of war with Iraq - and they didn't lose a single life in the process."
Now, without the barrier Iraq provided to contain jihadist influence in the region, Iran's star is ascending and it is funneling money to Hezbollah to attack Israel. And while Rice continues to preach the Bush gospel of democracy, the reality is her best hope for negotiating with the democratically elected terrorist regimes fighting Israel lies with unelected kings and dictators.
"History is full of irony," Gilbert said, smiling broadly. "That's why I love it."
He admits he underestimated Rice when she was confirmed as secretary of state. "I think she's doing better," which isn't saying much since he viewed her performance as national security adviser as a "disaster." At that time she endorsed the irrational neo-conservative views that got the country embroiled in the war in Iraq, for which, Gilbert said, "there's no way out."
"Now she's learning."
The fact is, he said, "international politics is a nasty, dirty business. It's a lot like 'The Sopranos.' I gave a paper last year suggesting that Tony would not be a bad secretary of state," he said devilishly. "He knows the game of political realism."
Now that positions have hardened in the Middle East, longstanding conflicts have exploded into bloody open warfare and trust in the U.S. has evaporated, he said, one thing's clear:
Rice knows that game too.
Diane Carman's column appears Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at 303-820-1489 or dcarman@denverpost.com.
Link:
USA allows more time for Israel to "finish the job" in Lebanon
posted by HRM Deborah of Israel and the Messenger of Peace at 7:05 PM
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