New Orleans Under Tropical Storm Watch

23 August 2008

by Mark Schleifstein

A tropical storm watch is in effect from the mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, including the New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain, as Fay maintains strength as it continues to straddle the Gulf of Mexico coastline on its wobbly path from Florida.

Tropical storm strength winds of 35 to 45 mph, with gusts to 55 mph, accompanied by above normal tides, will be moving into the area during the day Sunday and continuing through early Monday morning.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches, with 6 inches falling in some areas, is possible in areas east of Interstate 55.

Tides will be 2 to 3 feet above normal on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected on the North Shore and in coastal areas in eastern New Orleans and St. Bernard Parish.

An Army Corps of Engineers spokeswoman this morning said corps officials are monitoring the path of the storm closely. Computer modeling of Fay's forecast path and strength has not yet shown it will create storm surges high enough to require closure of any gates or other structures, said corps spokeswoman Amanda Jones.

In New Orleans, the city's top emergency planning official is encouraging residents to prepare for heavy rain, including avoiding areas prone to flooding.

Residents also are asked to take advantage of Saturday's calm conditions to clear street drains of debris that could impede the Sewerage & Water Board's massive drainage system, which is designed to remove one inch of water from city streets in the first hour and a half-inch of water every subsequent hour, said Col. Jerry Sneed, director of the New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness.

"We have spoken to SWB and Public Works to make preparations for a heavy rain event," Sneed said in an e-mail Saturday morning. "We are just watching and making normal preparations at this time."

Tropical storm Fay continues an erratic stop-and-start motion as it crawls west along the edge of the Florida panhandle, with half of its circulation remaining over warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

That motion is being driven by a strong ridge of high pressure centered over the northeastern United States, whose clockwise winds are helping push the storm west.

But Fay should reach the western edge of that ridge at about the same time it reaches the Louisiana border early Sunday.

That's when forecasters say the ridge will weaken as a trough of low pressure moves through the northern United States. A second ridge of high pressure will be developing over or near the Florida peninsula at the same time, which should again nudge Fay west and then finally push it northeast.

That complicated scenario means Fay has an uncertain future as it passes through the New Orleans area. Indeed, one computer model forecasts Fay to loop over southeastern Louisiana very slowly.

Because some of Fay's circulation will remain over water throughout most of this motion, forecasters keep its intensity at tropical storm strength and warn it could actually strengthen if pushed too far south into the Gulf.

Further Reading:

National Weather Service for New Orleans Area